Sunday 11 September 2011

Watch-Out for the coming week ! ! !

The FBM KLCI has been trading in a volatile range sideway between 1510 to 1440 for the last three week and formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price is now trading near the end of this symmetrical triangle and we should see the direction in this coming week.

We should see the (Death Cross) 50-days MA Cross over 200-days MA happen next week and the last time i saw this happen is in march 2008. Volume for the last three week remain low, seems like most of the investor still remain sideline due to uncertainty in Europe and U.S. If the price break below the support trend line, i would expect it to plunge 100 points and the target for this pattern projection will be 1350. 


 The German index DAX is trading in a down trend channel.


The Shanghai stock exchange is trading in sideway.

Tuesday 16 August 2011

Limited upside Vs More Downside to come ! ! !

Just to update the chart with the Fibo- Retracement, I'm still expecting this two week to be volatile with trading range between 1530-1430. While I'm writing my blog now, the FBM KLCI is trading at 1498.43. The upside (1530) Vs the Downside (1430), be caution for this rebound and don't get TRAPPED ! ! !

Monday 15 August 2011

Expect For The Coming Week To Be More Volatile !!!

Last week was such a volatile week while the trading range was so wide between 1515.19 to 1423.47 points. The index gaped down opened at 1515.19 and went as low as 1423.47 before it settled at 1483.67, declined 40.76 points.

The Coming Week Remain Volatile, Watch Out ! ! !

The index is trading in a Downtrend, no reversal sign from indicators and the price is still trading bias the lower bollinger band and below 50 - 200 days Moving Average. However, it still manage to close above the 1474 support that i mentioned last week.

I would expect the index to trade between 1500 - 1430 points for this coming week and bias to the downside. If the price close below 1430, the next support would be pegged at 1350.

Sunday 7 August 2011

Is this the beginning of a Crisis ?

Today most of our local newspaper headline is "S & P Downgrade U.S credit rating to AA+".

Last Friday due to a biggest one day drop since 2008, Dow Jones declined more than 500 points, our KLCI open gaped down 17 points and drop as low as 37 points and closed with only 22.46 points declined. I would expect for more downside for the index this coming week with two reason :

1. The index is still trading in a downtrend.

2. Cause of the U.S credit rating Downgraded by S&P (this would cause more selling pressure)

If we take a closer look to the chart, last friday it actually closed below the 200 days moving average and the RSI is also heading towards the oversold region. However, the daily candlestick formed a potential reversal pattern which is the hammer but in the weekly chart there is still no sign of reversal yet and it is still trading in a DOWNTREND.



The next two support for the KLCI is pegged at 1474 and 1430. For the resistance is somewhere near the downtrend line which is 1535 - 1530.

The least i will do is not to "Long", if i'm BEARISH.


US Credit Downgrade Quickly Followed by China Scolding, Christian News

The U.S. government got a good scolding from its largest foreign creditor China on Saturday after rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded America from AAA to AA+ for failing to sufficiently deal with its $14 trillion debt problem.

Official news agency Xinhua reprimanded Washington in a commentary for “living beyond its means.” The Chinese newspaper, which often serves as a mouthpiece for its communist government, rebuked the United States for accumulating what it estimates to be as much as $55 trillion in debt, with over $14 trillion of that being U.S. Treasury bonds. It calculates that the national debt amounts to $176,000 per person, or $670,000 per household.

In another opinion piece Saturday, Xinhua said, “The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone.”
“China, the largest creditor of the world’s sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China’s dollar assets.”
For the first time in history, the United States’ sterling credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s in an announcement made Friday night. S&P apparently was not appeased by the recent bipartisan budget agreement by Congress and President Obama.

The Budget Control Act 2011 raises the debt ceiling limit by $2.1 trillion, enough to allow the federal government to borrow money until 2013, and cuts discretionary spending by $917 billion and caps it for the next 10 years. It also creates a joint committee of Congress to reduce deficit between $1.2 and $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years.

China, which is estimated to hold at least $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, said Washington needs to reign in its spending and “cure its addiction to debts” in the Xinhua commentary.
Despite Beijing’s harsh words, there is still no safer market for China to invest its foreign exchange reserves than buying U.S. Treasury bonds. The European Union is dealing with its own set of debt problems and Japan is also wrestling with growing debt.

Although the United States was downgraded to AA+ rating, to put things in perspective, Japan, the world’s third largest economy, has a rating of AA-, which is two notch lower.
Japan, the United States’ second biggest creditor, did not lash out at Washington like China. Instead, the Japanese government was supportive despite the rating downgrade, saying U.S. Treasury bonds’ “attractiveness as an investment will not change because of this action,” according to Dow Jones.

Friday 5 August 2011

Global Market Red Day

Hang Seng Index settled at 20946.141 declined 938.60 points

Nikkei fell 359.30 points to 9299.88

Singapore STI settled at 2995.01 declined 112.0 points

SSE settled at 2627.08 declined 56.96 points

SET settled at 1088.38 declined 35.63 points

KLCI settled at 1524.43 declined 22.46 points

Dow Jones Industrial settled at 11383.68 worst drop in a day in 2011 - 512.76 points

Is this the beginning or just panic selling ???

Tuesday 2 August 2011

FBM KLCI




FBM KLCI closed lower today, declined 3.16 points settled at 1554.85. 

The index is trading in a downtrend with a lower high and a lower low spotted. MACD and RSI are below the middle levels and index is trading bias towards the lower Bollinger bands.

Indicators show sign of bearish with the market sentiment is still weak while investors fretted about a possible US government credit downgrade and concerns grew about the economy's growth prospects. Therefore, I will expect it to test the 1540 support.

The immediate support and resistance are pegged at 1540 and 1565. If 1540 can’t hold the next support can found at 1525.